I'll be posting the 21 minute, Daily, and Weekly charts. When trading the QQQ I typically use the Nasdaq 55 minute futures as my trend chart, however I'm doing a more in-depth analysis of the Q's so I'm doing longer term charts.
21-Minute Chart
The 21 minute chart (aka my "Decision" chart) shows that yesterday there was a huge dip in the morning, but the QQQ recovered as the day went on, and pretty much got back to even. Most of the good trades have been to the upside on the Q's lately, and you'll see why when you look at the Daily and Weekly charts.
Daily Chart
The QQQ has had a few dips the last couple of months, but for the last week or two it has been going up strong. As you can see, the last few days it seems to have stalled out. A lot of this is indecision over the upcoming Fed meeting, which we'll know more about the Fed's bond-buying tapering plans this coming Wednesday.
The MACD histogram is shrinking, and the stochRSI is topped out in the "overbought" region, so I would suspect some sort of dip coming up here soon. Plus the ADX is showing weakening in the current uptrend. The historical timing of this would coincide with the after-Sept-10th dip that I've been expecting.
The large pink line on the Daily is a trend line drawn off the weekly chart, which is coming up next...
Weekly Chart
Up, up, and away! The weekly has been going up strongly since about a year ago, and has been holding a steady trend shown by the bold pink line I drew. The weekly MACD histogram is showing some weakness. The stochRSI still has some room to run, and the candles have yet to hit the top bollinger band on the weekly. The weekly shows that, long term, the QQQ still has some room to run to the upside.
In Summary
In summary, there is a lot of indecision headed into the results of the Fed meeting next week. We'll know the results on Wednesday, September 18th. The 21 minute chart is showing choppiness, having sharp/quick downside moves that are brief and more sustained intra-day upside moves. The daily is showing signs of topping out, and may have a brief downside move soon. The weekly is showing that it still has some room to run to the upside.
I would say we're going to experience a dip going into the Fed meeting as investors ponder just what the Fed will do. Then, depending on the results of the Fed meeting, we'll either see the QQQ rocket up or sell-off sharply. There's so much hinging on the Fed meeting that I honestly cannot predict what will happen, only that (from a purely charting standpoint, ignoring the Fed entirely) there should be a short term dip on the daily soon.
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