September 18th

Making this a quickie as I am really REALLY angry with myself right now.

I went AGAINST my own advice... And traded today...and lost my ass at 2:00 when the fed shocked the world by announcing they would not taper!  I was in a put option play on the QQQ and when 2:00 hit, my position got cut in half.  I am so angry I cannot put into words how angry I am!

Lessons learned: when the Fed is expected to make a huge announcement, EXIT YOUR POSITIONS THE DAY BEFORE.  There is too much potential for a massive loss!

Lesson two: I stayed in the trade as long as I did because I was already down on the trade.  YOUR FIRST LOSS IS YOUR BEST LOSS.  IF THE TRADE IS NOT WORKING, CUT YOUR LOSSES AND GET OUT.  If it's not working NOW, WHEN IT'S SUPPOSED TO, the why will it work later? Don't give a losing trade "time to work"... Cut and run!

I'm off to lick my wounds and hopefully not lose my mind.  I am a very faithful man and I can say with full confidence yes I was stupid today and yes I need Jesus right now.

September 15th, 2013 QQQ Analysis

Chart is below, and as you can see there was a MAJOR gap up in the QQQ followed by a sell off that lasted pretty much the whole session.

The gap up was supposedly caused by Lawrence Summers withdrawing his name from candidacy to become the next Federal Reserve Chairman after Bernanke steps down in January.  The hard sell off is a mystery in itself, but it was due for a short term dip anyway, so that's most likely the cause.  The gap up probably just gave it extra room (and an extra excuse) to fall.

The futures are down as I type this at 8:25 PM EST.  Perhaps this is the "pop" followed by the "hard sell off" I've been waiting for...

21 Minute Chart

It certainly did a good job smashing downward through a key support level (the bold pink line).  The StochRSI is currently oversold and the MACD histogram is showing some signs of recovery.  Having said that, it's too early to tell if the QQQ will rebound or continue falling.

Check the NASDAQ futures Tuesday morning and use them as your trend chart when making trading decisions for the QQQ.  

Oh, and I WILL NOT be trading on Wednesday as that is when the Fed will announce their tapering plans following the FOMC meeting.  There's too much potential for a trade to go against me during Wednesday's session, so I won't be participating.  I will, however, be actively watching to see how the market responds, and I will be eagerly waiting for an opportunity to take advantage of this!

QQQ Analysis, September 14th 2013

Wanted to take a moment to look at the QQQ seeing as it's probably my most frequently traded security.

I'll be posting the 21 minute, Daily, and Weekly charts.  When trading the QQQ I typically use the Nasdaq 55 minute futures as my trend chart, however I'm doing a more in-depth analysis of the Q's so I'm doing longer term charts.

21-Minute Chart

The 21 minute chart (aka my "Decision" chart)  shows that yesterday there was a huge dip in the morning, but the QQQ recovered as the day went on, and pretty much got back to even.  Most of the good trades have been to the upside on the Q's lately, and you'll see why when you look at the Daily and Weekly charts.

Daily Chart

 The QQQ has had a few dips the last couple of months, but for the last week or two it has been going up strong.  As you can see, the last few days it seems to have stalled out.  A lot of this is indecision over the upcoming Fed meeting, which we'll know more about the Fed's bond-buying tapering plans this coming Wednesday.

The MACD histogram is shrinking, and the stochRSI is topped out in the "overbought" region, so I would suspect some sort of dip coming up here soon.  Plus the ADX is showing weakening in the current uptrend.  The historical timing of this would coincide with the after-Sept-10th dip that I've been expecting.

The large pink line on the Daily is a trend line drawn off the weekly chart, which is coming up next...

Weekly Chart

Up, up, and away!  The weekly has been going up strongly since about a year ago, and has been holding a steady trend shown by the bold pink line I drew.  The weekly MACD histogram is showing some weakness.  The stochRSI still has some room to run, and the candles have yet to hit the top bollinger band on the weekly.  The weekly shows that, long term, the QQQ still has some room to run to the upside.

In Summary

In summary, there is a lot of indecision headed into the results of the Fed meeting next week.  We'll know the results on Wednesday, September 18th.  The 21 minute chart is showing choppiness, having sharp/quick downside moves that are brief and more sustained intra-day upside moves.  The daily is showing signs of topping out, and may have a brief downside move soon.  The weekly is showing that it still has some room to run to the upside.

I would say we're going to experience a dip going into the Fed meeting as investors ponder just what the Fed will do.  Then, depending on the results of the Fed meeting, we'll either see the QQQ rocket up or sell-off sharply.  There's so much hinging on the Fed meeting that I honestly cannot predict what will happen, only that (from a purely charting standpoint, ignoring the Fed entirely) there should be a short term dip on the daily soon.

Multiple Day QQQ's Play

Rules for trading the QQQ's using a multi-day time frame.

1) When the Daily Nasdaq Futures charts and the Daily QQQ chart indicate a trade, use this as your decision.

2) If using an action chart, use the 21 minute as your action chart.

3) Purchase options either 1 strike price in the money or 1 strike price out of the money.  Only buy out of the money if it's within like 10 or 20 cents of being out of the money.  In the money is ALWAYS the safer bet.

4) Purchase plenty of time, you want enough time to capture a multiple day move.

5) Enter the trade when the bid/ask spread is no more than 5 cents apart.

6) If the Daily QQQ chart is coming off the bottom bollinger band headed up, or the top bollinger band headed down, you can typically expect a large move that can be as much as $4 per share.

August 2nd, 2013 QQQ 21 Minute Intra-Day

And now for the QQQ 21 minute intra-day chart.

The QQQ started with a slight dip in the morning, and pretty much took off from there with no looking back.  It is continuing to follow the strong multi-day up trend, and even closed the day at a historical all-time high.

And now for the chart...

August 1st, 2013 QQQ 21 Minute Intra-Day

The QQQ gapped up very hard at the open today.  This was mostly due to positive news coming in on the economic front coupled with the Fed declaring it will continue to pump money into it's multi-billion dollar bond buying QE program for the foreseeable future.  After the gap up, it remained flat most of the day, then advanced even further beginning around 2:00 PM today.

I peeked at the daily, weekly, and monthly charts for the QQQ and this advancement will be short lived.  The weekly chart and monthly chart show that it's recent movements upward are following VERY steep trend lines that will be broken soon.  On the weekly it actually recently broke a steep upward trend, pulled back, and is now following a NEW steep upward trend.  Well, it was new as of like a month or two ago lol.

See that note that says -70 LMT?  I recklessly entered a PUT play on the QQQ anticipating a drop today, but I didn't use a trend/decision/action progression or anything of the sort.  I just bought the PUT options because I felt it "couldn't go any higher" which is probably the biggest rookie mistake I've made in a long time.

I'm airing that out here to remind myself that, even after 6 years, I can still make rookie mistakes.  I'll re-evaluate the position in the morning now that my head is clear.

Just for kicks here's the daily of the QQQ...

And also the weekly of the QQQ...

It doesn't have to fall far to get me out of the trade at the spot where I put in my GTC sell order for the options, but it needs to fall quickly, something I'm not so sure of.  Again, this was a very UNDISCIPLINED and ROOKIE trade, and I'll be damn lucky to hit my GTC sell order.

July 31st QQQ 21 Minute Intraday Chart

Posting a 21 minute intra day chart of the Powershares Q's.  As you can see by the bold pink line, the 21 minute chart is following a nice little uptrend there.  Let's see if it continues...

July 29th, 2013

Been a few days since my last post.  Back was killing me Thursday, July 25th and I spent Friday, July 27th trading.  My results Friday were good.  I successfully executed a put option play on the QQQ ETF with an original position size of $3,000 at 10:27 AM and exited the trade with a profit of $1,000 at 10:50 AM.

Today's results were not as spectacular, however I did manage a $100 profit on a sniper call play on GS.  Toward the end of the trading session I did enter a multi-day put play on GS as their stock is coming off a 52 week high, the market is turning over, and it has a lot of room to close the gap between the trend line.  Plus the entire financial sector is facing pressure with rising interest rates, and the Federal Government accusing JP Morgan (JPM) of manipulating energy prices out west.

Aside from rising interest rates and the JPM fiasco, the biggest news of the week will be Wednesday when Ben Bernanke announces the Fed's position on ending stimulus.  How the market reacts will be interesting, to say the least.

QQQ 21-Minute Update

Just wanted to post the 21 minute chart as of the close of today, July 18th 2013.  The top pink line represents an existing level of resistance, and the diagonal pink line represents what WAS a support line, but which has now turned into a resistance line, as you can see.

From the chart below, it looks like QQQ broke below the supporting trend line to the down side, tried to recover, hit it's head on the trend line (confirming it has now become resistance), and is now set to head back down.

And the chart...

QQQ Intraday 21 Minute Charts (March 2013 through June 2013)

Uploading some pictures of the intraday QQQ 21 minute charts going back to March of 2013 for my own personal reference and review.  This is just so I can look at them without necessarily being at my home desktop where I have my technical scans setup.

Since I am currently unemployed thanks to my health, I will be able to study and practice intra day QQQ plays as well, and I'll be posting my results here so I can track them wherever I go!

03-05-13 to 03-13-13

03-13-13 to 03-21-13

03-21-13 to 04-01-13

04-01-13 to 04-09-13

04-09-13 to 04-17-13

04-17-13 to 04-25-13

04-25-13 to 05-03-13

05-03-13 to 05-13-13

05-13-13 to 05-21-13

05-21-13 to 05-30-13

05-30-13 to 06-07-13

06-07-13 to 06-17-13

06-17-13 to 06-25-13

06-25-13 to 07-02-13

QQQ Intraday Rules

Posting some rules for trading the QQQ intraday that I will follow myself.

1) Use the 21 minute chart as the decision chart

2) Use the 1 minute chart as the action chart

3) Use the Nasdaq 55 minute futures chart as the trend chart

4) Purchase options either 1 strike price in the money or 1 strike price out of the money.  Only buy out of the money if it's within like 10 or 20 cents of being out of the money.

5) Buy options that expire this month only.

6) Enter the trade when the bid/ask spread is no more than 5 cents apart.

7) Place a GTC sell order 15 to 20 cents higher IMMEDIATELY after the trade has been entered.  In the example given, the 15 cents higher was enough to make a 25% profit so a 25% profit may be a more accurate goal.