July 18th, 2013

Most of the indexes posted very small, although positive gains today.

On the whole not much news came out.  Google (GOOG) missed on earnings by a pretty wide margin.  This was mainly due to a decline in revenue from their ad service.

Financial stocks continued to pour it on strong this earnings season, with Morgan Stanley (MS) reporting a very strong beat on their earnings.  So far this earnings season, 75% of financial stocks have actually BEATEN their estimates, making a good case that the financial sector is coming on strong.

Bernanke made more comments today, who stated that the Fed's plans for winding down the stimulus were "not set in stone."  Basically this is a re-iteration of what he said before, that the Fed plans on ending Quantitative Easing, but will do so with discretion so as to not cause a panic in the markets.

Finally, the city of Detroit officially declared Chapter 9 Bankruptcy today.  This makes Detroit the largest city in history to ever declare bankruptcy.  I mean come on, who didn't see this coming like 5 years ago?  I pretty much knew this would happen, I just didn't think it would take this long to happen.

Oh, and for the BMY chart ;) lol

July 17th, 2013

So I didn't post yesterday because I started a new medicine for my back and it basically knocked me out stone cold lol.  However today's post won't mention yesterday because yesterday was pretty much a flat day.  Of course today was pretty flat too, although there were a couple of note-able news items.

SanDisk reported a large jump in earnings.  IBM reported a small jump after taking into account cost cutting measures, however they did state that growth was non existent in their "growth markets", indicating a slow down there.

Intel announced today that we should expect "little to no growth" for the rest of the year out of them.  This is symptomatic of the boom in the tablet market.  A lot more people are ditching traditional PC's for tablets.  I personally like having a PC and a Tablet, a PC makes a better work horse.  Having said that, a tablet can do about 90% of the things I need to do on a computer, so it's a nice substitute in most cases.

If Intel REALLY wants to compete they should start making tablet chips lol.

June housing starts fell 9.9%, which was much sharper than what anyone expected.  It looks like just when the housing market was gaining some steam, it's been hit below the belt.  Some blame Bernanke's comments for stalling the housing market, some blame the economy in general.

Bernanke announced today that the Fed WILL taper it's quantitative easing by the end of the year. He did say, however, that the Fed will do so within reason and won't do anything to jeopardize an economic recovery.  Bernanke's sent the markets on a roller coaster ride with his comments about QE.  First he says we'll do it, then we won't do it, now we will do it but "within reason."  Someone get the market some head medicine, I think it's turning schizophrenic lol.

Finally, the moment you've all been waiting for, a daily chart of BMY to see if I'm right...

Looks like a Fat Pitch going down, coming off the middle bollinger band and coming off a down trend line.  Prime time to buy some PUT options.

July 15th, 2013

Really slow news day and not a whole lot happening, but then again it's rare to have an action packed day during the summer anyway.  Most indexes posted very small gains, and appear to be topping out in preparation for a short-term fall.

News items for the day include China reporting a 7.5% advance in their country's GDP, which was in-line with estimates.  Citigroup, one of the largest banks in the country, posted better than expected profit and revenue for the most recent quarter.  This is a good sign for the banking industry in general.

On the whole though, most of the market was quiet and seems to be waiting in anticipation for a possible short-term dip.  I'm still bullish long term, but short term (ie: the next month or so) I think we'll see stocks dip.

Oh and just to take another look at BMY to see if my prediction of it going down will come true...

BMY Update (07-12-13)

OK so at this point I would have realistically left the trade a long time ago, however I am still tracking BMY just to see if my prediction of it going back down will come to fruition.

Glancing at the chart below (thank you Think or Swim!) it looks like the recent up move is stopping, and it looks like it's stopping on a down-trend resistance line.  I don't have one drawn on this chart, but just connect the tops of the candlesticks and you'll see it...

BMY Practice Trade Update (07-10-13)

BMY continues to move counter to my original position.  I haven't even looked at what the option price is, I only know that I SHOULD have exited the trade late July 3rd or early July 5th after I was already up 21%.

It looks to me like BMY is still going to go down, as is most of the market.  Currently I think the market is topping out and getting prepped for a down move, it just isn't happening RIGHT NOW.  But that's what's so critical about trading options - since they have a time decay element, I have to be right RIGHT NOW.

Anywho here's the daily chart...

Basically BMY is on a definite down trend for the near term, but it does have a fat pitch headed up indicating a sniper trade.  I would expect this up move to last anywhere from 1 to 5 trading days, then dissipate and continue heading down.  Even if this comes to pass, I STILL should have exited the trade with the 21% gain, because then I could have waited this up move out and re-entered the trade to go down AGAIN when it heads back down.

Just remember - this is what practice trades are for.  You can take your lumps and kick yourself without actually loosing money.  Just remember to treat it as though it were real so you can get your own emotions involved - fear, greed, etc.

BMY Practice Trade Update (7/8/13)

I went into the hospital on 7/4/13 which was a day the market was closed, and came out yesterday on 7/7/13, which was a Sunday, so the market was also closed.

Basically I missed one trading day (Friday, July 5th) and apparently missed a strong move counter to my position.  If I had closed my position before entering the hospital I would've been looking at a modest 21% GP on the trade.  As it stands I am currently looking at a loss of $91 or 8.5% since the current bid/ask sits at $1.40/$1.42.

The charts, however, show that the bounce against me was purely technical off the lower bollinger band, and things SHOULD continue in the downward direction in my favor.  And the chart...

BMY Practice Trade Update

Not feeling well so this is just a quick update.

At the close on July 3rd, the bid/ask of BMY was 1.85/1.89 for a total position size of $1,295 or a GP of 21% so far.

And the chart...

Practice Trade - Bristol Meyers Squibb (BMY)

Bristol Meyers Squibb (BMY) has been in a very narrow support/resistance channel for the last several days.  Recently, the stock broke downwards through the resistance, rose back up, bounced back downward off the resistance, and formed a Fat Pitch (possible Home Run Fat Pitch) to the downside.  On top of this the blue line is crossing the orange line on my chart, indicating the trend is now headed downward.

I'll be entering a practice put option trade on BMY using August puts that are one strike price in the money.  The stock is currently at $43.99 so I will be using the August $44 Put options with a Bid/Ask of $1.50/$1.53.  The options symbol is BMY_081713P44 for reference.

My current position size will be 7 contracts at the ask of $1.53 for a total position of $1,071.00.  I will immediately put in a GTC sell order shooting for a 30% Gross Profit on the trade, making my GTC target on the position a Bid price of $2.19 or a total position size of $1,533.00.

And the chart...