Game Plan for the Week of 11-10-13 through 11-16-13

Last week I was playing Cisco (CSCO) to the upside on a pre-earnings play.  Made a nice profit and got stopped out of the position on Thursday.  I entered the trade Monday at a bid price of $1.06 and got stopped out at an ask price of $1.52.  All-in-all, a fairly good gain.

On Friday, the Non Farm Payroll report came out.  It was an outstandingly good report.  The market was expecting somewhere in the realm of 100,000 new jobs, and instead about 200,000 new jobs were created in the private sector.  Now, most pundits (myself included) expected the market to react negatively to this news because it would give the Fed extra excuse to taper.  The market did, in fact, open lower and fall lower during amateur hour.  However, the market rebounded and ended closing near all-time highs.  For once, Wall Street actually responded positively to good news, which was refreshing.

The market calendar and the years-end rule both dictate that the market should rise going into Thanksgiving, followed by a sell-off from after Thanksgiving into the end of November.  Currently, there are three very nice upside signals on JPM, C, and NVDA.

C is currently caught in a triangle pattern, between a narrow support and resistance band, which may limit it's upside.  This makes it the least attractive of the three.

JPM has a HRFP going up, and this signal is coming off of a very long-term up trend line (making it even more attractive).  The only knock on JPM is that, historically, it goes down in the month of November.  Even though the charts are showing a strong upside tendency, this goes against history, raising some caution in my mind.

NVDA is coming off an earnings beat.  It has a HRFP going up, and this signal is coming off of a very long-term up trend line (making it even more attractive).  In addition to this, historically NVDA goes up in the month of November, making it even more attractive on top of that.

The combination of strong upside signals, post earnings potential, and historical success make NVDA a very nice upside play in my mind, with JPM coming in second.  C may wind up being a good upside play if it can break through resistance and bust out of the triangle pattern it's in.

And now the charts...

Nvidia (NVDA)

JP Morgan (JPM)

Citi Bank (C)

End of July Trends

I decided to try something new.  Since it's the end of July, I took a look at all my trend charts (aka - weekly charts) and did a review of them.  I'll be posting the ones here where I noticed an actual trend, or where I noticed support/resistance levels that are set to be broken.

The thick pink lines on each chart denote either a trend, a support, or a resistance.

Apple (AAPL)

AMD (AMD)
AMD looks like they broke below resistance on the weekly

Citigroup (C)

Goldman Sachs (GS)

Nvidia (NVDA)

Sandisk (SNDK)

Does not have a trend, but DOES have a fat pitch going down on the weekly

Yahoo (YHOO)

NVDA Earnings Research

The following is a summary of findings from my earnings research of Nvidia (NVDA):

February Earnings
Tends to have either a FP or HRFP going EITHER up or down in early to mid January.  This movement up or down can last for varying lengths of time.  During the trade, watch the MACD Histogram.  If the Histogram starts to dry up (the bars start to shorten or disappear) then the trade is over, and the stock is getting read to either reverse or go flat.

May Earnings

Tends to have a rise or fall beginning in early to mid April.  Pay close attention to both the StochRSI and MACD Histogram for entry points.  The Histogram will signal an exit when the bars start to dry up.

Watch for an early to mid month move in June (up or down).  The move will be signaled by a combination of a FP/HRFP AND a reversal in the MACD Histogram (the bars will go positive to negative, or vice versa).

August Earnings

In July, this stock tends to do one of two things:

- Rise from early to mid July, then Fall from mid to late July.

- Fall from early to mid July, then Rise from mid to late July.

Watch both the StochRSI and MACD Histogram.  When there's a FP or HRFP where the StochRSI and Histogram agree, there's your early July trade.  Once the Histogram BEGINS to dry up, exit the trade.  Once the Histogram has completely REVERSED, enter a trade going in that direction till late July

In late August and early September: A FP or HRFP (going either up OR down) will carry the stock into mid September.  Here, it will either "rest" then continue moving in the same direction, or it will reverse.  In mid September, once the Histogram dries up, exit the trade, then watch for another move.

EDIT: this move will have a CLEAR AND OBVIOUS signal on the StochRSI.  If the StochRSI is not CLEAR AND OBVIOUS then the rise/fall hasn't actually started.

November Earnings

Usually begins rising between late November and early December following November earnings.  This rise is usually followed by a fall that begins in late December to early January.  If the rise occurs, expect the fall to occur from 2 to 4 weeks afterward.  

You'll know the rise is coming when there is a FP or HRFP where the StochRSI and the MACD Histogram agree.  The rise is over when the Histogram bars dry up.  The fall begins when a Histogram bar going down appears.