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Friday, October 25, 2013

Stock Market Calendar

This Market Calendar works like clock-work and is your primary basis for trading decisions.  It provides the "biggest picture" of what the market is doing, and is to be followed regardless of whether we are in a Bear or Bull market.

As a note: it says late October is a "good time" to buy vault stocks, but the prime time of the year to buy Vault stocks can come as early as late July.  Late October is simply the latest in the year you should buy vault stocks, as the market almost always rises from here into January.

January to February
EARNINGS Season.  Excellent time of the year to make money in the stock market (to the up side or the down side).  A monkey can throw darts at the market and make money.  Do not confuse this with talent or ability.  Expect profit taking in mid January AND in mid February (ie: if the market was going up, expect a decline, and vice-versa).  Look for heavier profit taking at mid February through the end of February.

March
WARNINGS Season.  Look for a small pop after sell-off in February very early in the month.  Generally a tough, tired stock market.  Look for call entry points between the 15th and the end of the month, especially the last few days.

April
EARNINGS Season.  Generally good month (to the upside).  From the 1st through the 10th look for a rising market.  From the 10th to the 20th expect a sell off for tax season (the sell off can last one days or all 10 days, but it will happen during this time frame).  From the 20th through the end of the month, most stocks will be stable to up.

May
EARNINGS Season.  This is a 50/50 month.  From the 1st through the 15th, stocks trend upward as we finish up earnings.  From the 15th through the end of the month, expect heavy profit taking.

June
WARNINGS Season.  Tough, tired-acting market.  Look for call buying opportunities using charts between the 7th and 22nd of the month.  The summer months can be very choppy or just plain dead, be prepared for either.  The summer months almost always have very low volume; most traders live by the adage of "sell in May and go away."  Watch for call buying entry points the last 2 or 3 days of the month.

July
EARNINGS Season.  Can be good (to the upside) but look for profit taking mid-month.  Another summer month; generally a choppy time in the markets.  Use the profit taking in mid month to look for entry points on the charts (especially on stocks with AUG earnings or splits).

August
EARNINGS Season.  Earnings ends quickly.  Usually a choppy market with a negative bias.  Look for heavy profit taking.  Look for a sell off in the last 10 days of the month.  Watch the charts for buying entry points during the last few days for the post Labor Day bounce.

September
WARNINGS Season.  Sometime during the first 10 days look for an upward pop in the market followed by a hard sell off.  This pop is the post Labor Day bounce.  The moves will usually be dramatic (both the pop and the sell off) and will both usually be intra-day moves, rarely lasting more than one trading day.  September usually stinks after the 10th.  Look for buying opportunities (for calls OR puts) on the charts the last few days of the month.

October
EARNINGS Season.  This is a scary time in the market, as most major crashes happen in October.  Part of this is due to the fact that mutual funds must sell their losers by the 30th of October for tax purposes, causing a lot of downward pressure on the market.  Play with caution, taking profits quickly.  Look for entry points (for calls OR puts) on the charts during the last 3 to 4 days of the month.  The last few days to a week are generally a great place to purchase vault stocks (watch the daily and weekly charts for this purchase decision).

November
EARNINGS Season.  If there is no October crash, the markets will rise dramatically the first 2 to 3 weeks.  Look for HEAVY profit taking from Thanksgiving through the end of the month.

December
WARNINGS Season.  Expect HEAVY profit taking from November to continue until between the 5th and 8th of the month.  Look for buying opportunities (for calls OR puts) on the charts around the 5th to the 8th.  December can be a good month (ie: a rising market).  If it is a rising market, it is known as the Santa Clause Effect.  The market can be choppy.  Look for major buying opportunities (for calls OR puts) on the charts between the 15th to the 22nd.  The market suffers Christmas hangover from the 22nd to the end of the month.  Lookf or entry points (for calls OR puts) between the last 2 to 3 days of the month.

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