First: an update on NVDA and SHLD. NVDA is finally showing signs of heading up going into earnings whereas SHLD seems to be making up it's mind as to what it wants to do.
Some data came out today that is contradictory to yesterday. Even though it was reported that there are more jobs being created, unemployment claims unexpectedly rose to a 3 month high last week. However, even though the number of people filing initial claims rose, the overall number of people continuing to draw unemployment has been falling, which may explain the contradiction in the data.
This indicates that firings and layoffs are accelerating, which may be symptomatic of the fact that summer is coming to an end and some seasonal positions may be in the process of being vacated. Payrolls are falling as well. If we consider that payrolls are falling and firings are accelerating, even if more jobs are created the lower payroll number by itself indicates less money in the pockets of consumers, which means less consumer spending.
This assumption falls in line with the July retail sales results, which shows retail sales are declining. This number should improve in August, however, as families get ready for their kids to go back to school.
Finally, some analysts are calling for more stimulus money as the recovery appears to be weakening. With job growth weak and consumer spending weak, we're looking at a long, slow recovery at best.
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