No major news or stock movements to report today. Looks like the market as a whole is digesting the negativity that is omnipresent on a global scale.
I'm anticipating that it may stay flat to down till the last 2 weeks of August, at which point it should take a nose dive into Labor Day.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
August 11th, 2010
The economic recovery is definitely slowing, and there are very serious concerns that China's economy is slowing. In addition, some "experts" are saying that when they "read between the lines" of a July Fed meeting, they believe the US as a nation is essentially bankrupt. Other experts are saying that Federal Bonds (also called T Notes) should be dumped and that stocks should be avoided.
Doom and gloom reign on Wall Street at the moment. There is speculation that the government may have to double taxation rates to compensate for the overextension of our budget.
This fall should be interesting. We may see another crash similar to late 2008.
Doom and gloom reign on Wall Street at the moment. There is speculation that the government may have to double taxation rates to compensate for the overextension of our budget.
This fall should be interesting. We may see another crash similar to late 2008.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
August 9th, 2010
Pretty much no news to report. The only shred of news to come out today involved a report that China's trade deficit is at a record high (meaning they are exporting WAY more than they are importing).
News today was flat... market was flat... no noticeable entry points or any noticeable price action popped up.
News today was flat... market was flat... no noticeable entry points or any noticeable price action popped up.
Saturday, August 7, 2010
August 6th, 2010
First, an update on NVDA and SHLD. NVDA appears to still be caught in the grips of a massive downtrend. It is showing signs that it may be bottoming, but there is no way to be certain.
As of the close of this week, SHLD had a FAT PITCH going up on the weekly chart, indicating it has shifted into an uptrend. I will watch SHLD closely for an entry point on either the daily or 55 minute charts.
The Fed is now talking about the possibility of creating additional economic stimulus in the face of increased initial claims for unemployment, and a slowing of hiring. The Fed had been talking about an exit strategy - that is, a strategy that will allow them to take government money out of private enterprise and let private enterprise resume running itself.
The dollar is the weakest it's been in several months, and with payrolls shrinking things are not looking good for consumers. Corporations that export their products overseas to continents such as Asia and Europe, though, should be happy since this will point to greater profits coming in from overseas. Ultimately I have always felt that a weak dollar is good for American business, because it will allow us to become a nation of exporters again. This is because, if our dollar is weaker, other nations will find our products cheaper to buy.
As of the close of this week, SHLD had a FAT PITCH going up on the weekly chart, indicating it has shifted into an uptrend. I will watch SHLD closely for an entry point on either the daily or 55 minute charts.
The Fed is now talking about the possibility of creating additional economic stimulus in the face of increased initial claims for unemployment, and a slowing of hiring. The Fed had been talking about an exit strategy - that is, a strategy that will allow them to take government money out of private enterprise and let private enterprise resume running itself.
The dollar is the weakest it's been in several months, and with payrolls shrinking things are not looking good for consumers. Corporations that export their products overseas to continents such as Asia and Europe, though, should be happy since this will point to greater profits coming in from overseas. Ultimately I have always felt that a weak dollar is good for American business, because it will allow us to become a nation of exporters again. This is because, if our dollar is weaker, other nations will find our products cheaper to buy.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
August 5th, 2010
First: an update on NVDA and SHLD. NVDA is finally showing signs of heading up going into earnings whereas SHLD seems to be making up it's mind as to what it wants to do.
Some data came out today that is contradictory to yesterday. Even though it was reported that there are more jobs being created, unemployment claims unexpectedly rose to a 3 month high last week. However, even though the number of people filing initial claims rose, the overall number of people continuing to draw unemployment has been falling, which may explain the contradiction in the data.
This indicates that firings and layoffs are accelerating, which may be symptomatic of the fact that summer is coming to an end and some seasonal positions may be in the process of being vacated. Payrolls are falling as well. If we consider that payrolls are falling and firings are accelerating, even if more jobs are created the lower payroll number by itself indicates less money in the pockets of consumers, which means less consumer spending.
This assumption falls in line with the July retail sales results, which shows retail sales are declining. This number should improve in August, however, as families get ready for their kids to go back to school.
Finally, some analysts are calling for more stimulus money as the recovery appears to be weakening. With job growth weak and consumer spending weak, we're looking at a long, slow recovery at best.
Some data came out today that is contradictory to yesterday. Even though it was reported that there are more jobs being created, unemployment claims unexpectedly rose to a 3 month high last week. However, even though the number of people filing initial claims rose, the overall number of people continuing to draw unemployment has been falling, which may explain the contradiction in the data.
This indicates that firings and layoffs are accelerating, which may be symptomatic of the fact that summer is coming to an end and some seasonal positions may be in the process of being vacated. Payrolls are falling as well. If we consider that payrolls are falling and firings are accelerating, even if more jobs are created the lower payroll number by itself indicates less money in the pockets of consumers, which means less consumer spending.
This assumption falls in line with the July retail sales results, which shows retail sales are declining. This number should improve in August, however, as families get ready for their kids to go back to school.
Finally, some analysts are calling for more stimulus money as the recovery appears to be weakening. With job growth weak and consumer spending weak, we're looking at a long, slow recovery at best.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
August 4th, 2010
The US Economy received a slightly brighter outlook today. Figures show that employment is increasing faster than expected. This combined with continuing low mortgage rates are going to help the long term economic outlook.
NVDA and SHLD are showing signs that they may be bottoming and may be ready for a move upward. Tomorrow or Friday should reveal what these stocks are actually going to do.
In a side note: the dollar is rising in value vs. the yen, which is good for Japanese companies that export goods to America. This means higher profits for Japanese firms, which may signal an increase in stock prices.
NVDA and SHLD are showing signs that they may be bottoming and may be ready for a move upward. Tomorrow or Friday should reveal what these stocks are actually going to do.
In a side note: the dollar is rising in value vs. the yen, which is good for Japanese companies that export goods to America. This means higher profits for Japanese firms, which may signal an increase in stock prices.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
August 3rd, 2010
It's definitely summer time and the markets are making up their mind as to where they want to go. We're definitely looking at a drop going into Labor Day, and then post Labor Day we'll see the yearly "Post Labor Day Pop" upward followed by a hard sell off.
There are a few stocks such as GRMN and NVDIA that have historically trended up in August, but the charts are dictating otherwise. Once again, market uncertainty reigns.
The US economy is showing signs of uncertainty as well. Corporations are keeping more cash than in the past, reportedly as a result of "scars" from the recession. Several companies also are reluctant to hire employees to fill empty positions. It was reported that US home sales, factory orders, and consumer spending are weaker than estimated. On a positive side, Exports have grown this year, but YTD have missed their estimated rate of growth by 0.1%.
Despite all of this uncertainty, corporate earnings continue to be strong. Many corporations are maintaining strong profits, and many are growing even in this uncertain climate. If I were a long term investor, I would definitely be loading up on stocks of strong companies with a weak stock price (GE, IBM, GOOG, etc).
Finally, of the stocks I watch, NVDA reports earnings on August 12th and SHLD reports earnings on August 19th. Both of these stocks historically head up going into their earnings reports.
There are a few stocks such as GRMN and NVDIA that have historically trended up in August, but the charts are dictating otherwise. Once again, market uncertainty reigns.
The US economy is showing signs of uncertainty as well. Corporations are keeping more cash than in the past, reportedly as a result of "scars" from the recession. Several companies also are reluctant to hire employees to fill empty positions. It was reported that US home sales, factory orders, and consumer spending are weaker than estimated. On a positive side, Exports have grown this year, but YTD have missed their estimated rate of growth by 0.1%.
Despite all of this uncertainty, corporate earnings continue to be strong. Many corporations are maintaining strong profits, and many are growing even in this uncertain climate. If I were a long term investor, I would definitely be loading up on stocks of strong companies with a weak stock price (GE, IBM, GOOG, etc).
Finally, of the stocks I watch, NVDA reports earnings on August 12th and SHLD reports earnings on August 19th. Both of these stocks historically head up going into their earnings reports.
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