July 15th, 2013

Really slow news day and not a whole lot happening, but then again it's rare to have an action packed day during the summer anyway.  Most indexes posted very small gains, and appear to be topping out in preparation for a short-term fall.

News items for the day include China reporting a 7.5% advance in their country's GDP, which was in-line with estimates.  Citigroup, one of the largest banks in the country, posted better than expected profit and revenue for the most recent quarter.  This is a good sign for the banking industry in general.

On the whole though, most of the market was quiet and seems to be waiting in anticipation for a possible short-term dip.  I'm still bullish long term, but short term (ie: the next month or so) I think we'll see stocks dip.

Oh and just to take another look at BMY to see if my prediction of it going down will come true...

BMY Update (07-12-13)

OK so at this point I would have realistically left the trade a long time ago, however I am still tracking BMY just to see if my prediction of it going back down will come to fruition.

Glancing at the chart below (thank you Think or Swim!) it looks like the recent up move is stopping, and it looks like it's stopping on a down-trend resistance line.  I don't have one drawn on this chart, but just connect the tops of the candlesticks and you'll see it...

July 12th, 2013

Markets were pretty much flat today.  The biggest movement came from the Nasdaq which gained a paltry 0.61% (woohoo?).

I've switched to using Think or Swim instead of Strategy Desk and the difference is like night and day.  I don't know what it is, but once I got the charts set up in Think or Swim with my parameters they're just somehow easier to read and interpret.  Same damn parameters, easier to see... I don't get it, but I'm going to go with what works.

No major news today.  There were a couple of articles I saw today detailing how there is divergence within the Fed as to how to stop the Fed's bond-buying program.  Everything from Bernanke's own comments to FOMC meeting results, however, show that Quantitative Easing (QE) should begin to taper in mid 2014.

Another article I read today is one man's opinion on how rising interest rates will hurt the housing and mortgage markets.  Yeah this could happen, but rates are still historically low from where they have been, and I don't see this "hurting" so much as "slowing down a boom."

July 11th, 2013

Very nice up day across the board.  Less than 5% of the stocks on my watch list had down days, the rest had up days.  Most of this is attributable to remarks from Ben Bernanke.  One day after he caused a late afternoon topple of stocks, he essentially restated the same thing but in a way that clarified what he meant.

Bernanke said "Highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future is what’s needed in the U.S. economy."  Which, translated into layman's terms, means the Fed will still keep the stimulus and bond-buying train running as long as they deem it necessary.  So not only was yesterday's dip wiped out, but now it looks like the market is back on it's "full speed ahead" mode.  I would hate to be trading to the down side right now.

Another piece of positive news today involved our own government, who announced a $117 Billion budget surplus for the month of June.  Very impressive considering they were anticipating a $39.5 Billion surplus.  Granted, about $59 Billion of the surplus came from Fannie Mae, who paid back a huge chunk of the bailout money they received during the financial crisis.

As long as the positive hits keep coming and the Fed keeps pumping money into the system, there's no telling how high the market will go.  I guess it's wise to be aiming up until the next FOMC meeting, where I'd sell and await further commentary from Bernanke, since he apparently can sway the markets very VERY easily.

July 10th, 2013

The biggest news story of the day would have to do with remarks by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke at the end of the FOMC meeting today.  Around 2:30 was the time of the announcement, and as you can see in the below intra-day DOW chart, the market dropped almost immediately.

Other minor "news" today included reports that the Federal government is taking a bigger and more active role in cracking down on insider trading.

Additionally, a report came out that (compared to other currencies on an international/global scale) the US dollar is loosing the "race to the bottom."  Basically, a weak US dollar actually is a good thing because it means goods manufactured in the US are cheaper for other countries to buy, so other countries are more likely to buy goods we export.  A strong US dollar means we are more likely to purchase goods from abroad rather than domestically.  So essentially the report indicates that the dollar is strengthening, which means a likely increase in purchasing imports and a decrease in how many exported goods are purchased from our country.

On the whole the markets finished flat today.  The DOW ended the day down $8.68 or -0.06%.  The S&P 500 finished -$0.30/-0.02%.  The NASDAQ finished up $16.50 or +0.47%.

BMY Practice Trade Update (07-10-13)

BMY continues to move counter to my original position.  I haven't even looked at what the option price is, I only know that I SHOULD have exited the trade late July 3rd or early July 5th after I was already up 21%.

It looks to me like BMY is still going to go down, as is most of the market.  Currently I think the market is topping out and getting prepped for a down move, it just isn't happening RIGHT NOW.  But that's what's so critical about trading options - since they have a time decay element, I have to be right RIGHT NOW.

Anywho here's the daily chart...

Basically BMY is on a definite down trend for the near term, but it does have a fat pitch headed up indicating a sniper trade.  I would expect this up move to last anywhere from 1 to 5 trading days, then dissipate and continue heading down.  Even if this comes to pass, I STILL should have exited the trade with the 21% gain, because then I could have waited this up move out and re-entered the trade to go down AGAIN when it heads back down.

Just remember - this is what practice trades are for.  You can take your lumps and kick yourself without actually loosing money.  Just remember to treat it as though it were real so you can get your own emotions involved - fear, greed, etc.

BMY Practice Trade Update (7/8/13)

I went into the hospital on 7/4/13 which was a day the market was closed, and came out yesterday on 7/7/13, which was a Sunday, so the market was also closed.

Basically I missed one trading day (Friday, July 5th) and apparently missed a strong move counter to my position.  If I had closed my position before entering the hospital I would've been looking at a modest 21% GP on the trade.  As it stands I am currently looking at a loss of $91 or 8.5% since the current bid/ask sits at $1.40/$1.42.

The charts, however, show that the bounce against me was purely technical off the lower bollinger band, and things SHOULD continue in the downward direction in my favor.  And the chart...