Game Plan for the Week of 11-10-13 through 11-16-13

Last week I was playing Cisco (CSCO) to the upside on a pre-earnings play.  Made a nice profit and got stopped out of the position on Thursday.  I entered the trade Monday at a bid price of $1.06 and got stopped out at an ask price of $1.52.  All-in-all, a fairly good gain.

On Friday, the Non Farm Payroll report came out.  It was an outstandingly good report.  The market was expecting somewhere in the realm of 100,000 new jobs, and instead about 200,000 new jobs were created in the private sector.  Now, most pundits (myself included) expected the market to react negatively to this news because it would give the Fed extra excuse to taper.  The market did, in fact, open lower and fall lower during amateur hour.  However, the market rebounded and ended closing near all-time highs.  For once, Wall Street actually responded positively to good news, which was refreshing.

The market calendar and the years-end rule both dictate that the market should rise going into Thanksgiving, followed by a sell-off from after Thanksgiving into the end of November.  Currently, there are three very nice upside signals on JPM, C, and NVDA.

C is currently caught in a triangle pattern, between a narrow support and resistance band, which may limit it's upside.  This makes it the least attractive of the three.

JPM has a HRFP going up, and this signal is coming off of a very long-term up trend line (making it even more attractive).  The only knock on JPM is that, historically, it goes down in the month of November.  Even though the charts are showing a strong upside tendency, this goes against history, raising some caution in my mind.

NVDA is coming off an earnings beat.  It has a HRFP going up, and this signal is coming off of a very long-term up trend line (making it even more attractive).  In addition to this, historically NVDA goes up in the month of November, making it even more attractive on top of that.

The combination of strong upside signals, post earnings potential, and historical success make NVDA a very nice upside play in my mind, with JPM coming in second.  C may wind up being a good upside play if it can break through resistance and bust out of the triangle pattern it's in.

And now the charts...

Nvidia (NVDA)

JP Morgan (JPM)

Citi Bank (C)

Game Plan for the Week of 11-03-13 through 11-09-13

I still have my position to the upside open in Cisco (CSCO) and it looks like it's finally gaining traction to the upside.  It has a very strong history of trending up going into November earnings.  They report on November 13th.  I think it would be wise to pull out by this coming Thursday, though, given that Nonfarm Payrolls report Friday.  Why?  Well...

Nonfarm Payrolls report Friday, November 8th.  This will be a good indicator of the overall health of the job market, which plays a key role in the Fed's tapering plans.  If the Nonfarm payrolls are flat, a little good, or a little bad, stocks should continue upward.  If they are really good it means the job market is really good, and the Fed may speed up their tapering plans, so the market will drop.  If they are really bad this means the job market is really bad, which means the overall economy sucks, so the market will drop.

In earnings news, some good reports are coming out next week.  Disney and Whole Foods report next week.  These are two stocks that the analysts love to beat up when they report earnings.  One can almost expect there to be a post-earnings pullback on both of these stocks, followed by a rise once the pullback ends.  Wait for the drop to end, then buy on the pullback.