Breaking from the mold of traditional earnings research. Doing a full blown historical analysis on Adobe Systems (ADBE)
AS A NOTE: The strength of each trade can be gaged by the MACD Histogram. If the trade agrees with the Histogram, it will more than likely be a major success. Also, once the Histogram bars start shrinking up, that is your signal to exit the trade.
January
In late December & early January, watch for a FP or HRFP going either up or down to "kick off the new year." Keep in mind that Adobe has a historically negative bias in the month of January, so even if it's an up move, the up move can dry up and turn into a down move. If you see the MACD Histogram dry up mid month and then a HRFP or FP going down, follow this move.
February
Highly unpredictable and not always volatile enough for trading. Avoid this month.
March (Earnings Month)
No reliable plays despite having earnings this month.
April
Usually has a FP or HRFP going either up or down in the first few days. In some instances this move begins on the first trading day of April. It is imperative that the FP/HRFP agree with the MACD Histogram. If the HRFP or FP does not agree with the Histogram, do NOT execute the trade.
April can sometimes have a good move mid-to-late month. Again, you need agreement with the HRFP or FP and the MACD Histogram.
May
Usually produces an early to mid month FP or HRFP going either up or down. Watch for agreement with the FP/HRFP and the MACD Histogram.
June (Earnings Month)
Watch for a FP or HRFP (ONLY to the down side) that agrees with the MACD Histogram following earnings. After earnings, if there is a FP or HRFP going down and it agrees with the MACD Histogram, this can produce an absolutely spectacular drop in the stock's price, with major profit potential to be had.
July
Usually has a FP or HRFP going either up or down early in the month. In this particular case, the 200 period moving average line can heavily interfere with any move (up or down) so it is unwise to trade if the 200 period MA line is blocking any potential moves. As always, make sure there is agreement with the MACD Histogram.
August
Highly unpredictable and not always volatile enough for trading. Avoid this month.
September (Earnings Month)
No reliable plays despite having earnings this month.
October
Usually has a FP or HRFP going up or down early in the month. If this move occurs, it will last at least until mid month. Use the MACD Histogram to determine when the move is over. Once the move ends it will either reverse or go flat. On very rare occasions, the move lasts all month - you can tell when the move is over by if the MACD Histogram begins drying up.
November
Exact same as October.
December (Earnings Month)
Watch for FP or HRFP (ONLY to the down side) anywhere from a week to a few days before earnings. When the MACD Histogram dries up, there's your cue to exit the trade. In some instances, the MACD Histogram does not dry up. In which case, do the smart thing and exit the day before earnings.
