Search This Blog

Monday, November 1, 2010

NVDA Earnings Research

The following is a summary of findings from my earnings research of Nvidia (NVDA):

February Earnings
Tends to have either a FP or HRFP going EITHER up or down in early to mid January.  This movement up or down can last for varying lengths of time.  During the trade, watch the MACD Histogram.  If the Histogram starts to dry up (the bars start to shorten or disappear) then the trade is over, and the stock is getting read to either reverse or go flat.


May Earnings
Tends to have a rise or fall beginning in early to mid April.  Pay close attention to both the StochRSI and MACD Histogram for entry points.  The Histogram will signal an exit when the bars start to dry up.

Watch for an early to mid month move in June (up or down).  The move will be signaled by a combination of a FP/HRFP AND a reversal in the MACD Histogram (the bars will go positive to negative, or vice versa).

August Earnings
In July, this stock tends to do one of two things:
- Rise from early to mid July, then Fall from mid to late July.
- Fall from early to mid July, then Rise from mid to late July.
Watch both the StochRSI and MACD Histogram.  When there's a FP or HRFP where the StochRSI and Histogram agree, there's your early July trade.  Once the Histogram BEGINS to dry up, exit the trade.  Once the Histogram has completely REVERSED, enter a trade going in that direction till late July

In late August and early September: A FP or HRFP (going either up OR down) will carry the stock into mid September.  Here, it will either "rest" then continue moving in the same direction, or it will reverse.  In mid September, once the Histogram dries up, exit the trade, then watch for another move.

EDIT: this move will have a CLEAR AND OBVIOUS signal on the StochRSI.  If the StochRSI is not CLEAR AND OBVIOUS then the rise/fall hasn't actually started.

November Earnings
Usually begins rising between late November and early December following November earnings.  This rise is usually followed by a fall that begins in late December to early January.  If the rise occurs, expect the fall to occur from 2 to 4 weeks afterward.  

You'll know the rise is coming when there is a FP or HRFP where the StochRSI and the MACD Histogram agree.  The rise is over when the Histogram bars dry up.  The fall begins when a Histogram bar going down appears.